Recent Trends and Projections
in Wealth and Philanthropy

A.  Current Patterns
       Table A - Distributions between 
       Charitable Causes, Taxes and
       Heirs Other Than Spouse

B.  Forthcoming Wealth Transfer
      Table 1 - Lower Level Estimates
      Table 2 - Middle Level Estimates
      Table 3 - Higher Level Estimates

C.  Projections of Charitable Giving


References

AAFRC Trust for Philanthropy.  Giving USA 1998,  The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 1995, New York: 1999.

Auten, Gerald and Gabriel Rudney. “The Variability of Individual Charitable Giving in the U.S.”  In Voluntas: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations, 1990, 1(2), 80-97.

Avery, Robert B. and Michael S. Rendall.  “Estimating the Size and Distribution of Baby Boomers’ Prospective Inheritances.”  Department of Economics, Cornell University.  1993. 

Carnegie, Andrew.  The Gospel of Wealth and Other Timely Essays.  Edward C. Kirkland, ed.  Cambridge, Mass.  Harvard University Press.  1962. 

Council on Foundations and Independent Sector.  Impact of Tax Restructuring on Tax-Exempt Organizations.  Report prepared by the Washington National Tax Service of Price Waterhouse LLP and by Caplin & Drysdale Chartered.  Independent Sector, 1828 L Street, N.W., Washington, D.C.  20036.  1997. 

Havens, John J.  “Consumer Finances as Basis for Estimating Discretionary Income.”  Report submitted for the Indiana University Center on Philanthropy Discretionary Income Study.  January 1996a. 

Havens, John J.  The Composition of Wealth and Charitable Giving.  Working Paper.  Boston College Social Welfare Research Institute.  January 1996b. 

John J. Havens and Paul G. Schervish.  “Wealth and the Commonwealth:  New Findings on the Trends in Wealth and Philanthropy.  ”Boston College.  Social Welfare Research Institute.  Forthcoming 2001.

Havens, John J, and Paul G. Schervish.  “Millionaires and the Millennium:  The Forthcoming Transfer of Wealth and the Prospects for a Golden Age of Philanthropy.”

Boston College.  Social Welfare Research Institute.  1999. 

Jackson, E. F., Bachmeier, M. D., Wood, J. R. , and Craft, E. A.  "Volunteering and Charitable Giving: Do Religious and Associational Ties Promote Helping Behavior?"  Nonprofit and Voluntary Sector Quarterly, 1995, 24 (1), 59-78.

Keynes, John Maynard, "Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren," in Essays in Persuasion.  London:  MacMillan, 1933.

Murphy, Thomas B and Paul G. Schervish. “The Dynamics of Wealth Transfer:  Behavioral Implications of Tax Policy for the $10 Trillion Transfer.” Presented at the Independent Sector 1995 Spring Research Forum, "Nonprofit Organizations as Public Actors:  Rising to New Public Policy Challenges."  Alexandria, Virginia.  March 23-24, 1995.

Ostrander, Susan A. and Paul G. Schervish.  “Giving and Getting: Philanthropy as a Social Relation.”  In Critical Issues in American Philanthropy:  Strengthening Theory and Practice.  Jon Van Til (Ed.).  Jossey-Bass, 1990. 

Rosenberg, Claude, Jr.  Wealthy and Wise:  How You and America Can Get the Most out of Your Giving.  Boston:  Little Brown, 1994. 

Schervish, Paul G.   “Inclination, Obligation, and Association:  What We Know and What We Need to Learn about Donor Motivation.”  Pp. 110-138 in Critical Issues in Fund Raising.  Dwight F. Burlingame (Ed.). New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1997.

Schervish, Paul G.  “Gentle as Doves and Wise as Serpents:  The Philosophy of Care and the Sociology of Transmission.”  In Care and Community in Modern Society:  Passing on the Tradition of Care to the Next Generation.  Editors: Paul G. Schervish, Virginia A. Hodgkinson, and Margaret Gates. Jossey-Bass, 1995. 

Schervish, Paul G.  “Philanthropy as Moral Identity of Caritas.”  Pp. 85-104 in  Paul G. Schervish with Obie Benz, Peggy Dulany, Thomas B. Murphy and Stanley Salett.  Taking Giving Seriously.  Indianapolis: Indiana University, Center on Philanthropy, 1993. 

Shervish, Paul G.  “The Moral Biographies of the Wealthy and the Cultural Scripture of Wealth.”  In Wealth in Western Thought:  The Case for and Against Riches.  Paul G. Schervish (Ed.).  Praeger.  1994. 

Schervish, Paul G. "Adoption and Altruism:  Those With Whom I Want to Share a Dream."  Nonprofit and Voluntary Sector Quarterly.  Volume 21, Number 4. (Winter) 1992:  327-350.

Schervish, Paul G. “Major Donors, Major Motives:  The People and Purposes Behind Major Gifts.”  In New Directions for Philanthropic Fundraising: Developing Major Gifts 16 (Summer 1997):  85-112.

Schervish, Paul G.  The Modern Medicis:  Strategies of Philanthropy among the Wealthy.  Sam Francisco.  Jossey-Bass: Forthcoming. 

Schervish, Paul G. and Andrew Herman.  Empowerment and Beneficence:  Strategies of Living and Giving Among the Wealthy.  Final Report:  The Study on Wealth and Philanthropy.  Presentation of findings from the Study on Wealth and Philanthropy submitted to the T. B. Murphy Foundation Charitable Trust.  July 1988.

Schervish, Paul G. and John J. Havens.  “Social Participation and Charitable Giving:  A Multivariate Analysis.” Voluntas:  International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations.  Vol. 8, No. 3, Summer, 1997a.

Schervish, Paul G. and John J. Havens.  “Money and Magnanimity:  New Findings on the Distribution of Income, Wealth, and Philanthropy.” Nonprofit Management & Leadership.  Forthcoming Vol. 8, No.2, December, 1997b.

Schervish, Paul G. and John J. Havens.  The New Physics of Philanthropy:  The Supply-Side Vectors of Charitable Giving."  Social Welfare Research Institute.  Working Paper, October 31, 2000.

Shama, Simon.  The Embarrassment of Riches:  An Interpretation of Dutch Culture in the Golden Age.  Berkeley:  University of California Press, 1988). 

Wolff, Edward N.  “International Comparisons of Wealth Inequality.”  Review of Income and Wealth.  Series 42, Number 4, December 1996: 433-451. 

 

 

 Table 3
Higher Level Estimates
 

All dollar values are in millions of $1998

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Panel 1

 

 

 

 

 

 

1998-2017

 

 

 

 

Neg or Zero

$1 to $.9M

$1M to $4.9M

$5M to $9.9M

$10M to $19.9M

$20M or more

Total

Number of Estates

1,123,891

21,827,249

2,399,101

280,167

115,327

81,839

25,827,575

Value of Estates

($6,165)

$5,333,615

$4,848,943

$1,914,202

$1,553,817

$3,891,988

$17,536,399

Estate Fees

$254

$200,529

$197,832

$84,717

$71,521

$135,059

$689,911

Estate Taxes

$0

$98,357

$1,062,483

$742,803

$672,125

$1,321,786

$3,897,553

Bequest to Charity

$0

$271,014

$391,668

$267,623

$244,789

$1,524,749

$2,699,842

Bequest to Heirs

$0

$4,763,715

$3,196,961

$819,060

$565,383

$910,395

$10,255,513

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Panel 2

 

 

 

 

 

 

1998-2052

 

 

 

 

Neg or Zero

$1 to $.9M

$1M to $4.9M

$5M to $9.9M

$10M to $19.9M

$20M or more

Total

Number of Estates

3,746,158

58,915,725

20,448,961

2,794,077

1,191,398

742,991

87,839,311

Value of Estates

($19,348)

$17,558,323

$46,863,759

$19,142,272

$16,237,734

$36,374,157

$136,156,897

Estate Fees

$428

$664,087

$2,000,275

$848,144

$747,373

$1,262,818

$5,523,125

Estate Taxes

$0

$1,018,428

$12,687,522

$7,510,733

$7,040,021

$12,358,105

$40,614,810

Bequest to Charity

$0

$994,180

$4,216,581

$2,719,327

$2,594,719

$14,238,520

$24,763,327

Bequest to Heirs

$0

$14,881,628

$27,959,381

$8,064,067

$5,855,621

$8,514,713

$65,275,411